International Data Corporation (IDC) today published its second forecast for the worldwide quantum computing market, projecting customer spend for quantum computing to grow from $1.1 billion in 2022 to $7.6 billion in 2027. This represents a five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 48.1%. The forecast includes base quantum computing as a service as well as enabling and adjacent quantum computing as a service.
The new forecast is considerably lower than IDC’s previous quantum computing forecast, which was published in 2021. In the interim, customer spend for quantum computing has been negatively impacted by several factors, including: slower than expected advances in quantum hardware development, which have delayed potential return on investment; the emergence of other technologies such as generative AI, which are expected to offer greater near-term value for end users; and an array of macroeconomic factors, such as higher interest and inflation rates and the prospect of an economic recession.
IDC expects the quantum computing market will continue to experience slower growth until a major quantum hardware development that leads to a quantum advantage is announced. Until then, most of the growth will be driven by maturation in quantum computing as a service infrastructure and platforms and the growth of performance intensive computing workloads suitable for quantum technology.
IDC also expects investments in the quantum computing market will grow at a CAGR of 11.5% over the 2023-2027 forecast period, reaching nearly $16.4 billion by the end of 2027. This includes investments made by public and privately funded institutions, internal allocation (R&D spend) from technology and services vendors, and external funding from venture capitalists and private equity firms. Of particular note is the growing interest in quantum computing by global government agencies of which 14 (13 countries plus the European Union) have announced quantum initiatives that span…