Recession dangers are ‘uncomfortably excessive and shifting increased,’ Mark Zandi says

Recession risks are 'uncomfortably high and moving higher,' Mark Zandi says


The US economy has at least a one-in-three chance of sinking into a recession over the next 12 months, Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi told CNN.

“Recession risks are uncomfortably high — and moving higher,” Zandi said.

Before Russia invaded Ukraine, economists hoped energy prices and overall inflation would cool off this spring and summer. Now, the inflation outlook has darkened, with prices for gasoline, food, metals and other raw materials rising sharply.

“It’s reasonable to be nervous here,” Zandi said. “The Russian invasion and the spike in oil and commodity prices really changed things.”

Goldman Sachs economists said earlier this month the chance of a recession in the United States over the next year has climbed to as high as 35%.

‘A line that can’t be crossed’

The worsening inflation picture could force the Federal Reserve to do more to knock inflation down to healthy levels.

Consumer prices surged by 7.9% in February, the biggest 12-month spike in 40 years. But…